Monday, April 16, 2007

al-Sadr Makes Last(?) Move

The news today that Muqtada al-Sadr has ordered his ministers to resign from the Iraqi government is being reported as a setback. The AP reports:
BAGHDAD (AP) - Cabinet ministers loyal to the radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr resigned on Monday to protest the prime minister's refusal to set a timetable for an American withdrawal, raising the prospect that the Mahdi Army militia could return to the streets of Baghdad.
...
The departure of the six ministers, while unlikely to topple Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government, deals a significant blow to the U.S.-backed leader, who relied on support from the Sadrists to gain office.
I couldn't disagree more. al-Sadr has been the fly in the ointment for a long time and the compromise Maliki agreed to was necessary at the time. Since then, al-Sadr's involvment within the govenment has been a large factor in Sunni's reluctance to back Maliki.

Now that the surge is taking place with the complete backing of Maliki, including the very important broadened rules of engagment, the conditions on the ground have turned against al-Sadr. He has fleed to Iran costing him street cred with his brothers as well as a splintering of his militia. His protest organized last week in Najaf was a complete dud (despite the MSMs best attempt to paint it as another huge rally against the occupation.) Now, al-Sadr seems to be playing his last card: attempting to bring down the Maliki governement. But as even the AP concludes, that's not likely. With al-Sadr out of the way, the Iraqi goverment may now be able to start making progress with Sunni's more inclined to come aboard.

I also don't understand why the return of the Mahdi Army to the streets of Bahgdad would be a bad thing. Their strategy up to this point has been to lay low, awaiting the eventual surrender of the Democrats. Wouldn't their return to the streets give us the opportunity to rid them of the community once and for all? Of course it would, so don't expect the APs prediction of the much vaunted Mahdi Army to return to the battle any time soon, they're not that stupid.

One other note of interest are the demands of al-Sadr for the Maliki governement to set deadlines for the withdrawl of American forces. It seems al-Sadr and the Democrats have the same goal: the defeat of American forces in Iraq. The only difference is al-Sadr isn't afraid to come right out a say it.

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